WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.9S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION AND A DETERIORATING
STRUCTURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 020603Z AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO
DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER, IMPEDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO TC 01S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS GENEROUSLY BASED ON
RECENT CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WITH A
56 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 020615Z DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, AND A
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES DECLINE SHARPLY POLEWARD OF 15 DEGREES SOUTH. THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WELL SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BEGINNING TO FEED IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALSO EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA WILL BEGIN
EXTENDING NORTHWARD AND STEERING TC 01S TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM GIVING RISE
TO ANOTHER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TC 01S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AND
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THROUGH TAU 48. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48,
THE SOUTHWARD TRACK WILL BRING TC 01S INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. COOLER SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL
SET IN MOTION A WEAKENING TREND, WHICH WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A
PASSING TROUGH INDUCING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STEERING
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE PASSING TROUGH ERODES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN
ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST. TC 01S SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500, 022100Z,
030300Z, AND 030900Z.
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967