WTIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 11.7N 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.1N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.6N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.1N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.7N 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 69.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 797 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
A 022020Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (28- 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT
IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 03B HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ITS TRACK INITIALLY TO THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS AND THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 24
AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72, NORTH
OF MUMBAI IN THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
BECOMING MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE AS VWS FROM AN APPROACHING TROUGH
BEGINS TO INCREASE AND HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN TC OCKHI. INCREASING VWS
COMBINED WITH DECREASING ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN WILL FULLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
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