WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 112.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 111.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED
FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE, WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SUPPORT THE
ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.5, REFLECTING CIMSS SATCON AND CIRA MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES. A 031424Z ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER, BUT INDICATED 25
KNOTS NEARBY. TC 01S IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DUE TO DECLINING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DAHLIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER. SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
REMNANT CIRC COULD EVENTUALLY TRACK BACK INTO MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, REGENERATION IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 12 FEET.
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