WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 69.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 69.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.3N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC O3B. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A 041637Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WHICH
IS BASED ON A 041356Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. THIS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS)
FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST, CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL, IS STEERING TC 03B
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL ALSO HELP
TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND STEER TC 03B NORTHEASTWARD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 03B IS EXPERIENCING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO
50 KNOTS) WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC
03B IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO BELOW 35 KNOTS JUST BEFORE TAU 30, WITH
THE REMNANT LOW MAKING LANDFALL JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT
AROUND TAU 30. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SOME MINOR SPREADING IN THE MODEL FIELDS AFTER
TAU 24. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
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