WTIO31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 70.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.5N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.7N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.2N 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 70.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) OF TC 03B. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A 042233Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. STRONG WIND SHEAR
(30 TO 60 KNOTS) HAS DECOUPLED THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL
MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN A 042233Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON A
041356Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. THIS IS HEDGED BELOW A DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 FROM KNES. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST, CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL, IS STEERING TC
03B NORTHEASTWARD. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03B IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR TC 03B. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03B IS
EXPERIENCING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 60 KNOTS) WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24, WITH THE REMNANT LOW MAKING LANDFALL
IN THE GULF OF KHAMBHAT AROUND TAU 30. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH SOME MINOR
SPREADING IN THE MODEL TRACKS AFTER TAU 24. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND
060300Z.
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