1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 158.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 158.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.5S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 158.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (IRIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 451 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED FLARING
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLLAPSED AS IT REMAINED SHEARED
EASTWARD OF A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS NOW BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA, IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY A RECENT
ASCAT DIRECT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM OF 30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK
UNDER THE CONVECTION. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD, THE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE. THE
COMBINED EFFECT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET.
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