WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 70.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 70.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.2N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-DECAYING, FULLY-EXPOSED, BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC DUE TO STRONG (40-50 KNOTS)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03B IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). A 050424Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WARM
FRONTAL PATTERN NEAR MUMBAI WITH A REGION OF SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE
WINDS TO THE SOUTH, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF INDIA. THE 05/00Z MUMBAI
SOUNDING REVEALS A FRONTAL INVERSION WITH WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION INDICATES
A BROADENING WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY, SUPPORTING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
ASSESSMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE BUT IS BASED
ON THE ASCAT DATA AND A PGTW DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATE OF T3.5. TC 03B
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 16
FEET.
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