WTIO31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 68.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 68.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.5N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.9N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.5N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.3N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.6N 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH
IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND A 030506Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE
SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SLIGHTLY DEGRADED ON THE EAST AND
WESTERN EDGES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF
COOL DRY AIR NEARLY ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND
PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING
INTO A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TC 03B IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE WILL GUIDE TC 03B NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES AROUND THE WESTWARD MOST
EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ENHANCE OUTFLOW OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS LEADING TO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING TREND AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH
INCREASES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE SURROUNDING COOLER DRY AIR
GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TC 03B SHOULD BE NEARLY DISSIPATED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
OVER THE WEST COAST OF INDIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND DISSIPATES, THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
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