1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 23.9S 81.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 81.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.0S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.0S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.8S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.0S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 81.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1136 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
STARTING TO TUCK UNDER BANDING CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO THE
POLEWARD SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVER 30 KNOTS OF
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LATEST GFS AND NAVGEM
BASED CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING
ITS WARM CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 051055Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH ERODED STRUCTURE IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS MOSTLY INTACT,
THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND IS ASSESSED AT
45 KNOTS. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN UNDERSHOOTING INTENSITY
AND RANGE FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS), WHILE A 051018Z
CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS 59 KNOTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VWS REMAINS HIGH (OVER
30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A MORE RAPID DISSIPATION THAN THAT OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS NOW BEING
STEERED TOWARD THE SOUTH BY AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN DUE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN, THERE IS STILL GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
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