1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 141.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 141.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.5S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.9S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 141.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE EASTERN FLANK
HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTED WITH CAPE YORK PENINSULA;
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAINED RELATIVELY DEEP AND
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF 16P. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE 15-KNOT NORTHERLY VWS BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS IN
THE GULF ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. TC NORA IS IMMINENTLY
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
COASTAL AREAS OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA AS THE NER BUILDS. AFTER TAU
24, THE STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL BUILD AND
COMPETE FOR STEERING, CAUSING TC 16P TO BECOME QS. THE INITIAL LAND
INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 16P, THEN AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND, AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, WILL
CAUSE A MORE RAPID DECAY. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND SOUTH OF KOWANYAMA. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
UNISON WITH THE TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE WITH AFUM AS THE SOLE EASTWARD
OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE AFUM SOLUTION. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF A
QS MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01816_5day.gif