1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 79.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.3S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.1S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.3S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.0S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 79.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED CENTER THAT IS DISPLACED
SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE LATEST AMSU CROSS
SECTION FROM 032159Z INDICATES A SHARP WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WARM CORE. HOWEVER, A 040023Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE
LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY INTACT, WITH A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON FIXES FROM PGTW AND
KNES, AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGENCY T4.0
(65 KNOTS) DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE NOTED LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE OUTFLOW HAS
RELAXED, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND SHIPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES VWS VALUES ARE OVER 30 KNOTS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
EIR DEPICTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NOW A MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST,
THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTERN DEFLECTION. THERE IS A SHARP
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS
FAVOR A SLOW DISSIPATION, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES FROM GFS,
NAVGEM, AND HWRF ALL INDICATE 30-40 KNOT VWS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS ALONG TRACK WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE RAPID DISSIPATION SCENARIO INDICATED BY SHIPS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
CEBILE MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO THAT TIME. THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG
THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z, AND 050300Z.
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