1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 75.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 75.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.1S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.9S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.5S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.1S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 75.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A 35-NM RAGGED EYE EVEN AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY UNRAVEL AND DECAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 021057Z AMSU-B PASS WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MSI EYE POSITION THAT IS TILTED WESTWARD FROM
THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW
END OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.4 TO
T6.0 AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE STILL WARM AT 28-29 DEG C. TC 07S WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF THE NER TO
THE NORTHEAST UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWARD AS THE NER BUILDS AND EXTENDS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS COOL,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING AND OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
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