1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.1S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.8S 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.3S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.6S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 128.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION ALIGNS WELL WITH PGTW
AND KNES FIX POSITIONS, AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM DVORAK FIXES
OF T3.0 BECAUSE THE EIR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS NEAR THE COAST
ARE EXTREMELY WARM (30 TO 31C) AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30
CELSIUS UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN IT FALLS SLIGHTLY BELOW 30C. TC 15S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
TO BECOME MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE INITIAL TRACK WILL SKIRT THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE AND
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VWS, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
AFTER TAU 36 WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AND THE
CYCLONE MOVES COMPLETELY OVER WATER. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 96, TC
15S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FROM 55 KNOTS TO ABOUT 125 KNOTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN THE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TRACKS INCREASES.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
WITH CONFIDENCE LESSENING AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK INCREASES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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