WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290422NOV2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 8.9S 104.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 104.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 9.7S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.6S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.9S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.2S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 105.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 979 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND BUT SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING EIR AND A 292253Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, THE LATTER OF WHICH SHOWS GOOD CURVATURE IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KNOTS ACCORDING TO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM
PGTW AND KNES. TS 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE EAST, BUT A
TURN TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED BEYOND TAU 24 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS IN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THEREAFTER, A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN IS
FORECAST TO TURN THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.
TS 01S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY AROUND TAU 48 TO 72. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING SHEAR INDUCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 290430).
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDW60284.png?1512024625967