1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 166.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 166.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.6S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.2S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 24.0S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 20 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 30.9S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.0S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 166.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTHWEST
OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING
INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A DEFINED CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 070422Z LOW REFLECTIVITY COLOR-ENHANCED 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS WITH EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD
BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY,
PEAKING AT 125 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48 AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BEING ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AS WELL AS DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 96 WITH CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND WIND FIELD EXPANDING. HOLA WILL
BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN A TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AS THE NOTABLE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIER. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED ESPECIALLY
DURING RECURVATURE WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
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