. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 77.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 77.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.0S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.4S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 77.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A CLEAR EYE FEATURE, A VERY
SHARP EYEWALL AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELD CAUSING A NARROWER BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT COMPARED TO A MUCH BROADER
AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE EYE
FEATURE HAS GRADUALLY CONTRACTED FROM 30 NM TO 25 NM OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. A 310935Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE EYE
DIAMETER AND INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES OF 108 KNOTS. TC
07S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND MODERATE OHC, FAVORING FAIRLY CONSISTENT
INTENSITY WITH MINOR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM, PROVIDING ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT ALSO LEADING TO THE
NARROWER BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AS MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE WESTERLY
MOTION, LEADING TO WEAKER STORM RELATIVE SHEAR VALUES. TC 07S
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE COL AREA BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL RIDGE
PATTERN. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COMPETING RIDGE PATTERN. BEYOND TAU 36,
THE RETROGRADE OF THE STR TOWARDS THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE STR
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24,
VWS BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND OUTFLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SINGLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
BEYOND TAU 72, THE WEAKENING WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
COOLER WATERS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE.
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