1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 85.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 10.6S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 11.8S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.6S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.6S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 85.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 777 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL MASS OF CONVECTION COVERING UP A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 262147Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW
LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING UNDER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. IN ADDITION, A PARTIAL
261633Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
CONVECTIVE MASS WITH FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL SHEAR ADJACENT TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 07S WILL
INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT TAU 24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE BUILDING IN TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 07S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24
DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
PAST TAU 96, TC 07S WILL SLOW DOWN AS A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 260130).
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