1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 178.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 178.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.9S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.2S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.4S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
365 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.1S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 178.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST,
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 011855Z SSMIS 91
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES TO THE WEST OF FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 012149Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING
PATCHES OF 35 KT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH, WITH
THE AREA OF HIGHER WINDS TO THE SOUTH 75NM REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ABOVE THE 010000Z PGTW FIX OF CURRENT
INTENSITY T2.0 (30 KTS), BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT KNES AND NFFN
FIXES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, PROVIDING
HIGH (25-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MODERATE OUTFLOW TO
THE EAST IS STILL SUPPORTING SOME CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS, DECREASING TO THE SOUTH. TC 18P HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
PREDICTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINAL 35-KT INTENSITY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPRESSES DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND VWS
INCREASES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO A MID-LATITUDE JET TO THE
SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT TC 18P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER TC 18P AND THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPANDED,
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WARM CORE
BUT BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC, THUS SUGGESTING A MORE SUBTROPICAL VICE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TOWARD THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DURING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO LOW SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
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