1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 81.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.3S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.9S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.3S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.4S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL
CYCLONE THAT IS STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN A RATHER STEADY-STATE STRUCTURE OVER
THE PAST DAY, DEEP CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. A 052226Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED BUT EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EQUATORWARD
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SINCE THE 051543Z OSCAT PASS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET
AT 40 KNOTS. TC 07S CONTINUES TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AS IT IS STEERED AROUND AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS. ALTHOUGH THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE,
DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON THIS TURN AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BUILDS IN TOWARD THE SOUTH AROUND TAU 12 TO 24. NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS STRONG (APPROXIMATELY 40 KNOTS), WITH
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 DEGREES C), SUGGESTING THAT
THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION BY AROUND TAU
48. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
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