WTXS33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 122.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.6S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.5S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 18.7S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.1S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.3S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 28.6S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 122.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTH
OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE CAPE LEVEQUE, AUSTRALIA SHOWING
LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING LIGHT RAIN WITH INCREASING INTENSITY
AND THE GENERAL ROTATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON BOTH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND THE HIGHEST REPORTED WIND
OBSERVATION IN THE REGION FROM ADELE ISLAND REPORTING SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 29 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SSTS IN THE
AREA ARE IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS AND VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. TC 05S HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONE MID TO LOW
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
NORTHWESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA SHIFTING
TC 05S TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TC 05S WILL
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WARM OPEN WATER AND WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS. NEAR TAU 48 TC 05S WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF
PORT HEADLAND AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. LAND INTERACTION AS TC 05S
TRACKS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FULLY
DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUPPORT FOR THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BUT DIFFERS IN THE TRACK TRAJECTORY AS A RESULT
OF THE NEAR-TERM COMPETING STEERING RIDGES. OVERALL THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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