WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 111.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 111.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.5N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 12.7N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 110.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 01W IS
DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHERN VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). TD 01W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER IT
MAKES LANDFALL NORTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10 FEET.
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