1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 79.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 79.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.5S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.0S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.4S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.6S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.4S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 28.1S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 899 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH DEEP
BANDING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE POLEWARD AND EASTERN SIDE. THIS
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS DUE TO UNFAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LATEST
AMSU CROSS SECTION FROM 040200Z INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WARM CORE. HOWEVER, A 040054Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT
THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY INTACT, WITH A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 040332Z
METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
TO 65 KNOTS, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS), HEDGED HIGHER
BY A 040055Z AUTOMATED SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS AND THE
040332Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF GREATER THAN 60 KNOT
WINDS. THE VWS ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN A WESTERN DEFLECTION. THERE IS A
SHARP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION.
DYNAMICAL MODELS FAVOR A SLOW DISSIPATION, WHILE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS LESS AGGRESSIVE, CALLING FOR DISSIPATION BY TAU
96.THERE IS LOW SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01807_5day.gif