WTIO31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 68.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 68.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.1N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.7N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.4N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.1N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.8N 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 678 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
OCKHI IS MAINTAINING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY, AND SUPPORTED BY A 031657Z AMSU
89 GHZ MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5, AND SUPPORTED BY BOTH
CIMSS SATCON AND CIRA MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATES.
ADDITIONALLY, A 031658Z ASCAT PASS PROVIDED INPUT TO THE ANALYZED
WIND RADII ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE OVER
THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, ENHANCED
BY A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES HAVE REACHED AN UNFAVORABLY HIGH 25-30 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WITH VALUES INCREASING TO THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATES DRIER
AIR IS BEGINNING TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. TC 03B IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL. 03B IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES
AROUND THE WESTWARD MOST EDGE OF THE RIDGE. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLER WATERS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN TC 03B OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DUE TO THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 03B
SHOULD BE NEARLY DISSIPATED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE WEST
COAST OF INDIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z,
041500Z AND 042100Z.
https://resize-ak.wunderground.com/c...ht=113&v=2