1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 26.7S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 163.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.4S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.7S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 33.8S 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 37.3S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 42.3S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 163.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON IS., HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A SMALL REMAINING AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. A 172238Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 50 KNOT BARBS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE 60 NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI SUPPORTED BY THE 172238Z
ASCAT AMBIGUITIES IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON STEADY STATE CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY A 172021Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 54 KNOTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE HEDGED HIGHER THAN
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FRON T2.0 TO 3.0 (30 TO 45
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS STILL OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW THIS THRESHOLD AS TC 09P
TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09P WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BY TAU 18 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS. TC 09P WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AND
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AS TC 09P TRANSITIONS,
ITS WIND FIELD WILL BROADEN AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN ALLOWING
INTENSITY TO REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS DESPITE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE SSTS. TC
09P WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL OVER NEW ZEALAND AT TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
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