1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 26.9S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 107.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.0S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 107.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM SOUTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LLC HAS BECOME
MORE RAGGED AND ELONGATED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
ERODED AND SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT COINCIDED WELL WITH THE LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 240554Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS DEDUCED FROM THE 240103Z OSCAT BULLSEYE PASS
THAT SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 45 KNOTS AND THE 240241Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS
THAT SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DEGRADATION.
TC MARCUS IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOT) VWS AND
COOLING SSTS (BELOW 25C) AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS
18 FEET.
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