WTPS31 PGTW 280300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272051ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.4S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0S 162.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.0S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.2S 163.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 255 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 30.0S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 285 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 38.3S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 415 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
405 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
265 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 160.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP FLARING CONVECTION ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ALONG AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A CONCENTRATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH A 272311Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 35 TO
40 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE
OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SPCZ, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES POLEWARD AND TAPS INTO MID-
LATITUDE DYNAMICS. TC 08P WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 72, WITH INCREASE
BAROCLINICITY AND STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TC 08P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AND COMPLETELY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY TAU 96 IN THE VICINITY
OF NEW ZEALAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 272100).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED REFERENCE TO TCFA MESSAGE IN
BULLETIN HEADER AND ADDED PARA 2.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01808_5day.gif