BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.2N 60.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 60.2 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-
northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across
the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area this
evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Kirk moves through the
Lesser Antilles. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next
couple of days while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Kirk is forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night,
and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in a few hours. Locally higher winds
are possible atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains.
RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6
inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands
with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and
Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is
expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches by Friday and Saturday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graph...png/024509.png