1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 75.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.7S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.9S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.5S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 24.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 27.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 75.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 60 NM EYE AND WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE IN THE 0202044Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B PASS. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
STILL WELL ORGANIZED, THE EIR LOOP SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOW
END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM OF T6.0
(115 KNOTS) FROM KNES TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW TO REFLECT THE
WEAKENING TREND: BOTH FIXES HAVE DECREASED IN CURRENT INTENSITY AND
FORECAST T-NUMBER FROM THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS
(5-15 KNOTS), MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SST VALUES (28-29
DEG C), AND MODERATE OHC. TC 07S WILL BEGIN TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AS THE
NER BUILDS IN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WANING, WITH TC 07S ENTERING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS AND LOWER SSTS AFTER TAU 48. TC 07S
WILL MAINTAIN ITS WARM-CORE BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 120.
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS CAPTURE THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTERN TRACK IN THE
NEAR TERM, WITH A LATER POLEWARD TURN, WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT
IN SPEED AND SPREAD IN LATER TAUS. HWRF IS A PARTICULAR EASTERN
OUTLIER AND MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY OF TC 07S LONGER THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS.
IN LIGHT OF THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
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