1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 32.6S 162.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.6S 162.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 36.2S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 29 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 40.5S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 43.9S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 33.5S 163.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 331 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 190550Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLCC AND DECAYING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN 182303Z PARTIAL METOP-
A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ASCAT PASS, 50 KNOT WINDS ARE
STILL LIKELY IN A TIGHT RADIUS AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS)
WHICH REMAINS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT,
BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 12 TC 09P WILL TRACK MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12 AND DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
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