1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 142.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.6S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 142.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM WEST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW OVER LAND, CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES AND LOCAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS
SCALED LOWER FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BASED ON LAND INTERACTION, AND
SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM KOWANYAMA, AUSTRALIA REPORTING
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A MINIMUM MSLP OF 984 MB. TC 16P HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS WHILE OVER LAND REMAINING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS ANOTHER
COMPETING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD. THE REMNANTS OF TC
16P IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AS A POST TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS EVENTUALLY TRACKING WESTWARD AS THE SOUTHERN RIDGE BUILDS.
THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE REMNANTS OF 16P TO AGAIN TRACK
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BEYOND TAU 48,
BUT OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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