1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 138.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 138.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.1S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.1S 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.5S 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.3S 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RADAR IMAGERY FROM GOVE, AUSTRALIA, RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND A PARTIAL 230607Z SSMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM
CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 16S HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND
ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A DEVELOPING EYEWALL EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
POLEWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE SOUTH EXERTS AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON STORM MOTION. SLOW
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WITH ACCELERATION WESTWARD LIKELY THEREAFTER. RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS TC 16S PASSES OVER
VERY WARM WATER IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
SUPPORTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. TC 16S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 AS
IT MOVES INLAND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE POLEWARD TRACK SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, BUT DIVERGE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE MAJORITY SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH LANDFALL AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
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