. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (GITA) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 34.0S 164.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.0S 164.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 38.1S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 41.8S 172.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 35.0S 165.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (GITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A 191125Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE LLCC WHICH IS STARTING TO
BECOME ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
SAME ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS THAT 50 KNOT WINDS CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (50 TO 60 KNOTS) WHICH REMAINS
OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, BELOW 25
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 09P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 09P WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AS
IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AND DECREASE TO 45
KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z AND
200900Z.
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