1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 141.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.6S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.1S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.3S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.4S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
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REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 141.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (NORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO EXTENSIVE
INTERACTION WITH THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CIRCULATION FEATURE EVIDENT
IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS ABOVE AREA OBSERVATIONS THAT
ARE DISPLACED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND TERRAIN INHIBITED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER LAND. TC NORA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHERLY AS A
STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL BUILD AND COMPETE
FOR STEERING, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. LAND
INTERACTION AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
TC 16P WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, SOUTH OF KOWANYAMA. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD AFTER
TAU 24. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
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