1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 80.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.3S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.7S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.1S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 79.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1248 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC
WITH AN ELONGATED MASS OF CONVECTION PRESSED TO THE EAST IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THIS ANIMATED EIR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY A 071542Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING
45 KNOTS AS WELL AS A 071635Z CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 42 KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN
UNREPRESENTATIVELY LOW AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST 72 HOURS DUE
TO A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VWS, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AGAINST STRONG (30-KNOT
PLUS) WESTERLY VWS LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36. CURRENT SSTS ARE BELOW 25C AND WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY (LESS
THAN 1C) AS 07S TRACKS WEST, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S IS STARTING TO
EXHIBIT SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS AS EVIDENCED BY ITS
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AND ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
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