WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.7S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.9S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.7S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 49.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 338 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING
OF DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF
MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE NEWLY FORMED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO 102 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPED POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO
AN ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT
CONSTRAINED BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT DUE TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH NOW REORIENTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 03S. THE STR WAS PREVIOUSLY STEERING 03S ON
COURSE DUE WEST, BUT WITH THE RECENT SHIFT EASTWARD TC 03S IS NOW
TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STR
MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TC
03S TO A SOUTHWARD COURSE BY TAU 36. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY VERY
FAVORABLE NEAR 29 CELSIUS BUT DROP RAPIDLY BELOW 25 DEGREES SOUTH.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN
MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAINING FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WILL MITIGATE
SIGNIFICANT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
BEYOND TAU 12. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 03S SUSTAINED
AT AROUND 80 KNOTS FROM TAU 36 TO 72. BEYOND TAU 72 COOLER WATERS
WILL HELP FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST, BUT
SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITION AND THE
COASTLINE. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH
NAVGEM AND NOW ECMWF SHOWING THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK
SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT TC 03S' TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE
EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER MODELS ARE SHOWING. DUE TO THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
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