1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 47.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 47.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.2S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.7S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.9S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.0S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 060530Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH TAU 24. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 36, TC 03S WILL MOVE BACK OVER
WATER AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RE-INTENSIFY. TC 03S WILL REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 TC 03S
WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH
TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, IS GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND
070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01803_5day.gif