WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 51.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 51.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.3S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.0S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.4S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 25.2S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.2S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 50.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 041519Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTESITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BOTH A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 03S IS INITIALLY FORECASTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 24, THE
STR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC AVA TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, TRACKING DOWN THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
TAU 72 WHEN THE STR, NOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WILL BUILD BACK
WESTWARD CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU
12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE WHERE MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS THROUGH TAU
96. AFTER TAU 96, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU
120, A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL INTRODUCE INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
24. AFTERWARD, SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED
AND DIRECTION RELATED TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE MODIFICATIONS. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE NAVGEM AND JGSM WITH
SOLUTIONS THAT SUGGEST A SHARP TURN SOUTH PRIOR TO TAU 12 AND A
TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER FROM THE MADAGASCAR COAST. DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z,
051500Z AND 052100Z.
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