1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 20.8S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.0S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.2S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.2S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
370 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.2S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 177.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (JOSIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010001Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY COVERED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
EAST OF CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE KNES AND
PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BUT IS MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE PHFO T3.0 (45 KTS) 00Z FIX, AND IS HEDGED BELOW
A 311811Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. TC 18P IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE
CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AROUND
TAU 36, SOME MODELS EXPECT AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP TO
THE EAST OF TC 18P AND BRIEFLY PUSH ITS TRACK MORE POLEWARD. TC 18P
IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO SEVERE (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
EASTWARD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER VERY WARM
WATER (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TEMPORARILY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS
IN THE VICINITY, SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW AND WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD REMOVED FROM THE CENTER WHILE
MAINTAINING A WARM CORE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL STEERING
SCENARIO. DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE NER TO THE EAST
AMPLIFIES LEAD TO SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE DEVELOPING IN THE LATER
TAUS AS SOME MODELS PUSH THE TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD, AND OTHER
MODELS DO NOT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
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