WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.7S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.2S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.5S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.1S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3S 48.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.2S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 032309Z 37GHZ
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF MUTLI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, AS THE STR MOVES EASTWARD
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TAKING IT DOWN THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AROUND 65 KNOT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96.
AFTER TAU 96, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH WIND FIELD AS IT TRANSITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24 THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS
BEING HWRF TRACKING OVER MADAGASCAR, AND NAVGEM, WITH A SOLUTION HAS
THE SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFF SHORE. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
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