1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 23.4S 49.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 49.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.7S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.3S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.6S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC
03S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 071200Z METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE RAGGED STRUCTURE OF TC 03S.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) RANGING
FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 070634Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS.
TC 03S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 48.
TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU
36. BEGINNING AT TAU 48, TC 03S WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BECOMES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL. TC
03S WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48 WITH A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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