1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 123 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 47.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.8S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.3S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 28 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.9S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 33 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.4S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISSIPATING CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN ANIMATED IR IMAGERY AND A 082241Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE REMAINING
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LOCATED IN THE SOUTH EASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A
081838Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE THAT MISSED THE LLCC BUT CAPTURED AN
EXPANSIVE 30 TO 35 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLY COOL (25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A WEAK BUT DEFINED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TC 03S HAS LOOPED TO THE NORTH, AROUND ON ITS OWN TRACK
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
03S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36
AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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