1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 49.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.0S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.4S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.9S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5S 48.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.5S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.2S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.9S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AVA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED AND
NOW OVER LAND NEAR TAMATAVE, MADAGASCAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS WHICH IS
BASED ON PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 (90 TO
102 KNOTS) TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RECENT LAND INTERACTION. OBSERVATIONS
FROM NEARBY TAMATAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 83 KNOTS WHEN CORRECTED FOR ONE MINUTE AVERAGE, AND A
MINIMUM STATION PRESSURE OF 965 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
DEVELOPED POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT
CONSTRAINED BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT DUE TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH NOW REORIENTING
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 03S. THE STR WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY EAST AND STEER TC 03S SOUTHWARD. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR REEMERGING OVER OPEN
WATER AROUND TAU 24. LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 65 KNOTS, AND WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE THIS INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AS TC 03S TRACKS
POLEWARD OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN. BEYOND TAU 72 TC 03S WILL ENTER A
REGION OF COOLER WATERS, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 92 TC 03S WILL
BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN
DISSIPATING. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
FORECAST POSITION AND THE COASTLINE. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK ESPECIALLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND TAU 120 WITH NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOWING A
POSSIBILITY OF THE SOUTHERN STR BUILDING BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO SHIFT
TC 03S TRACK TO THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE EASTWARD TURN MOST OTHER
MODELS ARE SHOWING. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
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