1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 115.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.7S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.2S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.7S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.5S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS
RE-DEVELOPED AN 11-NM SHARPLY OUTLINED EYE AS HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL
BANDS WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
201032Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.5 TO 6.0 AND REFLECTS THE INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF
130 KNOTS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT RECURVES SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC MARCUS WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
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