1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 112.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.0S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.0S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.7S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.0S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 30.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 111.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
PINHOLE EYE (8 NM IN DIAMETER) THAT CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
PERIODS OF CLOUD-FILLING AND CLEARING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR
IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 202317Z 91GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ENCIRCLING THE ENTIRE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS IS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 125 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC MARCUS IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM TRACK IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND
TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS TC 15S
ENCOUNTERS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VWS AND
DECREASED OHC. AFTER TAU 48, TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS INTO STEADILY DECREASING SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE VWS. THESE
UNFAVORABLE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO TC 15S DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
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