1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 105.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.4S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.4S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 105.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM CIMSS AND
CIRA. TC 15S IS STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY AND WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS STEADY WEAKENING TREND WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
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