1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 25.0S 164.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 164.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 28.4S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 22 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 32.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 25 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 37.6S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 315 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
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REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 164.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (FEHI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGHLY SHEARED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, AND ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MULTSPECTRAL IMAGERY LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY 292230Z ASMU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A VERY WEAK, EXPOSED LLCC WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A 292232Z SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATING A
COUPLE 40 KNOT WIND BARBS JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ALIGN WITH THE ASSESSED INTENSITY AT T2.3 (33
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC FEHI IS TRANSITING
THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (35-40 KNOTS) VWS
AND IS TRACKING OVER MARGINAL (26 DEGREES C) SSTS. AN AMSU THERMAL
CROSS SECTION FROM 292000Z INDICATES A WARM ANOMALIES EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE,
INDICATIVE OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN
ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE, THEN COLD CORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC FEHI WILL
INTENSITY SLIGHTLY AS IT UNDERGOES ETT, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY TAU
24. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
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