WTXS33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.8S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.0S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.4S 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.2S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.5S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 121.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (JOYCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102147Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOME PORT INDICATE SLP NEAR
996MB, A 6.5MB DECREASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND 10-MINUTE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 36 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 46 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS),
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ADJUSTED TO A 1-
MINUTE AVERAGE. TC 05S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD AFTER
TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED,
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC
05S IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE
SST (30-31C), AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. INTERACTION WITH THE
FLAT, MOIST LAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT
SIGNIFICANTLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
A 107NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36, THEREFORE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND LANDFALL LOCATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S
(IRVING) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).
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