WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 22.3S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.7S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 24.9S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 26.0S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 26.8S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 27.5S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CEBILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1047 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A HIGHLY SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED ACCORDING TO THE
BROAD LLCC IN THE SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 042224Z AND
050041Z. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TC 07S, THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS.
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS HIGH (OVER 30 KNOTS). STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MORE RAPID
DISSIPATION THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GLOBAL
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH OF TC 07S. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF THE TURN, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z, AND 060300Z.
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