1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 167.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.4S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.0S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.8S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.8S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.9S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 20 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0S 174.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 15 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 35.3S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 167.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MASS OF DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SPIRALING
INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
062136Z GPMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE
LOW LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ANIMATED
VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE HIGHER END
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5
(45 TO 55 KNOTS) AND A 062145Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING SEVERAL
50 KNOT BARBS WITH ONE 55 KNOT BARB. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 062340Z
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE VWS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
(LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) WITH STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW CONTINUING TO
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT IS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
TAU 36, TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEW
ZEALAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT TAU 60 ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING JUST
ABOVE 125 KNOTS AFTER RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEING ENHANCED
BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AS WELL AS
DECREASING SST AND OHC WILL STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TC 12P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ETT AROUND TAU 96 WITH ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVING TRACK AND
THE TIMING OF THE TURN. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED WHICH LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
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