1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (HOLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 166.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 166.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.3S 166.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 166.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.5S 168.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 26.8S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 33.5S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 166.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (HOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 7-NM PINHOLE EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 12P HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (FROM 45 TO 90 KNOTS)
WITH CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5
(102 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT THE LOWER END OF
THESE ESTIMATES AT 90 KNOTS. TC 12P IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STR EXTENSION WEAKENS FURTHER. AFTER TAU 24,
THE STR WILL RE-ORIENT AND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, BASICALLY A HIGH AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC
STEERING PATTERN. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 TO 125 KNOTS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
130 KNOTS FORECAST AT TAU 36. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU
48 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
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